Sales of personal computers to the home are booming, although even in 1995, fewer than 40 per cent of household had one. If computers were were as common as the telephone, TV, or auto, would they have equally profound effects on family life and social ins titutions as these earlier technologies have had? There are two methods for predicting the social impact of emerging technologies: drawing analogies from histories of older technologies or carefully examining the behavior of the early adopters of the eme rging technology. Both can provide valuable insights, but each has limitations.

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